Racing Louisville Half-Season Review: Substitution Patterns
Guest writer Brendan Devine does a deep dive on how Racing's substitutions are impacting the regular season and you might be surprised by what he learned
The three of us behind Butchertown Rundown are always excited by the fun conversations we see happening among Racing Louisville’s fans, particularly in the Lavender Legion. After Brendan shared some of this great info in the Legion Slack, we asked him to come here and share what he’s learned about Racing’s substitution patterns and what that might mean for the team.
This project started from a fan's idle curiosity and a desire to see if what my eyes told me each week was accurate: Was Racing Louisville truly using subs as infrequently as it felt? It grew to ask questions like, where subs are being made? And when or how do these patterns under first-year head coach Bev Yanez compare to last season under head coach Kim Björkegren? And how do Racing’s substitution patterns compare to other teams in the league? The result was a rapidly expanding Excel sheet that revealed more than I expected.
Methodology
All stats were pulled from fbref.com and relied on their recording of line formations for each game and any potential mistakes in tallying numbers (which I did by hand) are my own. The stats are also only representative of the 16 regular season matches and do not include the Challenge Cup or Summer Series.
While analyzing when and where on the field subs were made I relied on the starting formations for each game as recorded by fbref and tallied each substitution as happening on the line on which the player exiting the game began on. Admittedly this has its flaws as it does not account for in-game formation changes or a situation where a defender subbed on for a forward to defend a late lead, but I could find no good way to account for this with the information readily available.
When calculating the percentage of substitutions that occurred on each line it was done so against the total number of substitutions made rather than the total available. Every team had a minimum of 80 substitutions available over the course of 16 games but for example, San Diego Wave made 75 subs so their 14 defensive sub (14/75) account for 18.66% of their subs made. Same for the timing of subs. The Wave made 28 subs between the 45-60th minute; 28/75=37.33% of SD's subs made happened in that window.
By The Numbers
Here we will look primarily at the numbers as they pertain to Racing Louisville but will discuss a few other items of note as they are relevant before discussing what it means and what, if anything, should be done.
As it turns out, my eyes did not deceive me. Not only has Racing Louisville’s substitution rate been low, but they have received the fewest total minutes, 1141, from subs of any team in the league thus far. The league’s two most recent expansion teams, The Utah Royals and Bay FC, had the second and third-fewest minutes from substitutes in the league with 1173 and 1195 minutes respectively. In fact, Racing, Utah, and Bay FC were the only three teams in the league with fewer than 1300 minutes contributed from substitutes this season with The North Carolina Courage the next fewest at 1324 minutes. The San Diego Wave has received the most minutes of any team from their subs with 1702.
Additionally, Racing has used just 58 of the 80 substitutions available to them. Utah is the only team that has used fewer subs with 54. By contrast, the Seattle Reign have made 78 substitutions on the year and current league leaders Orlando Pride have made 74.
Thus far in 2024, Racing has seen minutes from 21 players on their roster, the second-fewest behind North Carolina’s 19. Surprisingly, given that they had the second-fewest minutes from substitutes, Utah has actually fielded the most players in the NWSL this season with 25.
During the offseason, there were a lot of jokes made about Racing Louisville collecting midfielders. Because of this, I was surprised to find that Racing made a whopping 67.24% of its substitutions on its front line, just 27.58% in the midfield, and 5.17% (three total subs) on the defensive line. The only other teams to have more than 50% of their substitutions on a single line were the Utah Royals midfield (55.55%) and the Washington Spirit forwards (51.47%).
I was struck by how infrequently Racing substituted on the backline but ultimately not surprised given the injuries and lack of depth in that part of the roster. For comparison, the North Carolina Courage was the team who had substituted the second least frequently on defense (6 total subs) and top-of-the-table teams Orlando and Kansas City sat about the middle of the table in that respect.
Next, I looked at when substitutions were happening and Racing’s substitutions have been fairly evenly distributed throughout the game with 2 subs before halftime, 14 between the 45th and 60th minutes, 20 between the 61st and 75th minutes, 14 between the 76th and 90th minutes and 8 substitutions occurring during extra time. As a side note, when a substitution is made in extra time, fbref credits the player entering the game with 1 minute of play time regardless of the amount of stoppage time played.
With all this information I finally turned to looking at where goal contributions were coming from for Racing Louisville and I was surprised to find that while Racing’s bench was providing the least amount of minutes in the league they were among one of the most impactful groups in terms of goal contributions per minute played. Racing’s starters have thus far contributed 16 goals and 11 assists while the substitutes have contributed 5 goals and 2 assists. At a goals-per-minute played rate, this means Racing’s substitutes have been more impactful than any team in the league with the exception of North Carolina, Portland, and Gotham.
What Do the Numbers Show?
This is where things get a bit murky because I couldn’t find a clear connection between a team’s substitution patterns and their success. As already noted, Utah, who sits at the bottom of the table, has seen minutes from more players than any other team, San Diego, currently sitting in 10th place, has seen more than 100 minutes more from their subs (1702) than the next most, Portland (1590). Portland (5th place) and Seattle (13th place) have both made 10 substitutions in extra time, more than any other team, and Angel City FC, sitting in 11th hasn’t seen a single goal or assist by a substitute all year.
The first thing I wanted to look at was how do Racing’s substitution pattern in 2024 under first-year head coach Bev Yanez compare to 2023 under head coach Kim Björkegren?
As we can see in the table above Bev subs more frequently on her front line which may have contributed to the fact that in 16 games the team has already seen more goals and assists from its substitutes than they did in the entire 2023 season.
There is an interesting pattern that emerges here where Bev seems to be going to the bench earlier more frequently than Coach Kim which would lead you to expect the team would get more minutes from the bench. However, Coach Kim only left a total of 20 available subs unused in 2023, a number that Bev has already eclipsed with 22 unused subs in 16 games. Thus, it would appear that Coach Kim used more subs but tended to bring them on later in the game which resulted in a similar percentage of playing time from the subs year-to-year.
Overall, it appears to be a mixed bag year-to-year with a slightly lower percentage of minutes from the bench in 2023 but far more impactful minutes in 2024, at least offensively.
In the context of the current season, the unavoidable fact is that Racing Louisville is utilizing its bench less frequently than any other team in the league which raises the question of why this may be the case and if this is having an impact on the team?
There are a few things that immediately come to mind. First, Racing has struggled with injuries throughout the season. Lasting injuries to Jaelin Howell, Savannah DeMelo, Ary Borges, and Kirsten Wright have limited the minutes the team expected from returning players, and of course, it would be a mistake to ignore the impact of Elli Pikkujämsä’s season-ending injury on the depth chart. Left with only 5 defenders on the roster after the injury to Elli, the team has been hamstrung by available depth which largely explains the lack of rotation on the back line.
But injuries are not the only story. During the offseason, many Racing fans were excited by the prospect of seeing four new young internationals join the squad. Elexa Bahr (FW-Col), Milly Clegg (FW-NZ), Linda Motlhalo (FW-South Africa), and Yuuka Kurosaki (Mid-JAP) all brought intriguing opportunities but of the four only Bahr has seen significant minutes for Racing and Kurosaki and Clegg have yet to see the pitch at all.
When trying to decide what to make of this, we can, to some extent, turn to the knowledge that the NWSL is one of the best and most physical leagues in the world and it may take some time for young players to adjust to the league. However, during the course of the season, we’ve seen Milly Clegg start multiple games for New Zealand including two starts thus far in the Olympics and a stunning goal in an international friendly against Japan. When asked, the coaching staff has assured fans that the players know what they need to do to get minutes, and while that is good it is also vague and doesn’t help assuage fan worries when talented young internationals sit on the sidelines as Racing’s bench remains the least used in the league.
In this instance, I am reminded of a conversation between the hosts of The Butchertown Rundown podcast in a recent episode. Hosts Bekki Morgan, Tom Benson, and Kaitlyn Whiteside were discussing this very issue, and the question of roster construction was brought up. As it currently stands, three roster spots are being occupied by young internationals brought in during the offseason who have scarcely seen the field. They are all forwards and midfielders while the team is clearly struggling with its defensive depth. So, I think serious questions need to be asked of the coaching staff and front office regarding roster construction. Specifically, how much roster space can we reasonably dedicate to “development projects” and how can we better balance the roster to avoid being left shorthanded on one line by a season-ending injury?
What Does This All Mean?
Perhaps nothing. But perhaps it has more impact than it would first seem. Sitting in 9th place, Racing has gained the fewest minutes from substitutes of any team in the league this season, but 10th place San Diego has had the most. Meanwhile, 14th-place Utah has seen minutes from the most players (25) of any team and 6th-place North Carolina has seen the fewest (19) take the field. Meanwhile top of the table Orlando and second-place Kansas City have both made 74 substitutions on the year, making it difficult to make direct correlations between substitution patterns and on-field success.
However, one cannot help but wonder if tired legs have caught up to Racing Louisville both in individual games and as the season has progressed.
Racing currently has just five defenders rostered and has only made 3 substitutions on the backline in 16 games, defender Ellie Jean has played just 155 minutes and the team as a whole limped into the international break with four losses and a draw in their last five matches.
Taking this into account and given the number of late leads that Racing has surrendered, I think it's reasonable to suggest that the workload may have contributed to Racing’s current standing in 9th place, on the outside looking in at the playoff race.
What Can Be Done?
This is a question that is not as easy to answer as it might seem. The easy answer is “use the bench more.” But if Head Coach Bev Yanez doesn’t believe that players are ready for the pace and physicality of the NWSL it would be unwise to just throw them to the wolves as it may be. Which brings us back to the question of roster construction.
Given that Racing Louisville currently has just five defenders on their roster it would seem a logical priority of the club to target help on the backline during the transfer window opening on August 1. And given the age and contract status of Abby Erceg and Carson Pickett, it might also be a priority to target defense in next winter’s draft but that would not help the team now as they compete for the first playoff berth in franchise history.
With limited roster space available and the defense in need of immediate attention, another possibility to open more room for roster flexibility would be to either loan out some of the younger players not currently getting minutes or release them from their contracts entirely so they can pursue other opportunities either in abroad or in the newly formed USL Super League. This would open roster space to potentially bring in more experienced players who are better suited to step into the physicality and pace of the NWSL now rather than needing extensive adjustment periods.
With the transfer window set to open and other teams around the league already announcing moves, Racing should be looking to adjust its roster for the stretch run. Racing Louisville is a young team and has received impressive contributions from their bench in limited minutes. If they hope to right the ship coming out of the international break and make a serious playoff push, they may need to take a long look at the roster as currently constructed and how they are using the roster available on game day.
I’d like to thank Bekki Morgan for reaching out and offering me the opportunity to write about what was initially an idle curiosity project that grew beyond what I initially imagined as I spoke with other members of the Lavender Legion. I’d also like to thank Tom Benson and Kaitlyn Whiteside for their contributions to the Butchertown Rundown which have meant so much to Racing fans.
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Interesting investigation and analysis