Racing Louisville Midseason Review: The First 10 Matches of 2024
A new coach, new players, and injuries stand out as the biggest difference makers through the first block of the season. Is Big Purp on the right track?
Ten games into Racing Louisville’s 2024 campaign finds them with 12 points and a 2-2-6 record. Thanks to last weekend’s 1-0 win against the Chicago Red Stars, Racing have bumped themselves up to eighth place in the National Women’s Soccer League and, at least temporarily, into a playoff berth. Louisville is holding onto that playoff spot thanks to their positive goal differential that separates them from the San Diego Wave and Houston Dash who also have 12 points.
Since their inaugural season in 2021, Racing has never finished a season above ninth place. In fact, they’ve never ranked as anything but ninth place. Ten games into 2024 with 16 left to play, are they finally in a position to earn a coveted playoff spot? And what do they need to do in the next 10 games to improve in the standings or at least hold tight to where they are now? Let’s break it down in this midseason review of Racing Louisville’s 2024 campaign.
By the Numbers
At this point in the season, the National Women’s Soccer League’s standings can be broken into three relatively clean tiers. At the top, you have three teams pulling away with the Orlando Pride in first with 27 points, the Kansas City Current in second with 25, and the Washington Spirit in third with 24. All have played 11 games so far. Next, you have a mishmash of teams in the middle ranging from fourth to 11th place who have earned 11-19 points with some teams playing 11 games and some only playing 10. Finally, you have the bottom three teams — Bay FC, the Seattle Reign, and the Utah Royals — who have pulled in less than 10 points despite already playing 11 games.
With 12 points earned out of a possible 30, Racing finds themselves lumped into the center of that middle group of teams. However, it’s important to remember they’re one of only four teams who’ve played 10 games so far — one less than every other team in the league. Even so, the fact they’ve earned six draws — including giving up a lead to settle for a tie three times — is the hallmark of a less-than-stellar start.
There are a few signs that they’re performing a bit better than their results indicate, however. They’re in a three-way tie for the fifth most goals scored (15) and have given up the fourth fewest goals of any team in the league with 12. Additionally, when looking at Racing’s average expected goals generated across the first 10 games, they’ve slightly outperformed their opponents.
These numbers are put in a slightly better light when it’s apparent that Racing has played teams who, on average, have ranked within the top six. The last five games alone in particular have included four road trips and only involved opponents ranked first through sixth. The fact they’re doing as well as they are despite having an extremely tough schedule is a positive sign that can’t be brushed off.
When you compare the data from the first 10 games of 2023 to the first 10 games of 2024, there has been some improvement, but it’s marginal.
Possession and xG are almost identical for both Racing and their opponents across both years. The biggest difference is that they have a slightly better record in 2024 with one less loss. They had a 2-3-5 record and 11 points in 10 games in 2023 and they now have a 2-2-6 record and 12 points in 2024. They have also scored two more goals in 2024 (15) compared to 2023 (13) despite giving up the same number by this point (12). Considering that Racing has had a more difficult schedule in 2024 than in 2023 and still pulled off a better record is a sign of strength for the team in the current season.
All in all, the data shows there is some improvement between 2023 and 2024, but it’s marginal. As with the 2023 season, this is another year where Racing isn’t doing poorly — they’ve only lost twice — but with only two wins, they’re not doing spectacularly either. But does data tell the whole story? Let’s look at some of the storylines that help explain how Racing’s performance so far.
Key Takeaways
The Squad
Injuries linger, but new faces shine
Injuries have played a major role in Louisville’s game management this season. The midfield, in particular, has been hit hard with captain Jaelin Howell, Ary Borges, and Jordan Baggett barely available for minutes. Even Savannah DeMelo has missed three games this season due to a smattering of injuries.
Beyond the midfield, forward Kirsten Wright hasn’t yet appeared after suffering a knee injury that required surgery. The defense also took a major blow when center-back Elli Pikkujämsä suffered a season-ending patellar tear in only the third match of the season. Pikkujämsä was also often Racing’s backup defensive midfielder for Howell, so last season, losing both players at once plus Baggett would have been catastrophic. However, thanks to hard work done in the off-season, they’ve been doing fine thanks to their new arrivals.
Even without all the injuries in the midfield, Taylor Flint’s performance would have stood out as one of the best on the team. After being traded to Louisville from the San Diego Wave, Flint has switched to playing further back on the field in a double pivot effortlessly and played nearly every minute of every match for Racing so far. According to Opta, Flint leads the league in interceptions (38) and tackles (52), is second in the league in tackles won (20) and aerial duels won (45), and is third in the league in blocks (15). Recently, Flint has been paired with Marisa DiGrande who joined from the Houston Dash as Racing’s first free-agent signing. Although she has far fewer minutes than Flint with 448 in four starts, but she’s provided a calm, veteran presence next to Flint that helps make the losses of Howell, Borges, and other midfielders almost unnoticeable. She’s already notched an assist, as well
The offense has also been dramatically impacted by off-season acquisitions with a third of Racing’s 15 goals coming from newcomers — three from Emma Sears, one from Reilyn Turner, and one from Elexa Bahr. Turner also has two assists and Bahr has one. (Sears arguably should have one after doing all the work in dribbling the ball forward from midfield for Turner’s goal against Gotham FC, but her cross deflected off a defender before Turner backheeled it in, robbing Sears of the award for her efforts.)
The rookies Turner (sixth overall pick) and Sears (28th overall pick) have been particularly impactful in Racing’s offense. Turner is fourth on the team in expected goals generated with 2.77 xG and Sears is fifth with 1.73 xG. Across the entire league, Turner is ranked 9th for shots on target despite only playing 440 minutes and Sears is ranked 10th despite only playing 540. Sears is also tied for sixth in the league for dribbles completed (19) and just won back-to-back goal-of-the-week accolades from the NWSL for her goals against Kansas City and Chicago. Both players bring a level of confidence and creativity that Racing has been lacking before. Neither are afraid to take the difficult shot and it’s paid off. As the only two rookies signed, their scouting and selection is a huge boon for Racing’s front office and coaching staff.
Finally, the addition of defender Arin Wright has been critical for Racing’s success — especially after Pikkujämsä’s injury. The Kentucky native has primarily played as an outside back in her decade-long professional career, but since arriving in Louisville she’s played solely as a center back. She’s eased into the slot next to Lauren Milliet and Abby Erceg effortlessly and her speed has been valuable for a team that wants to play in a high-pressing style. She also has one of the highest passing accuracies for a starter in the league with 89%.
While Racing is doing well with their added depth, the fact they are having to dig so deep into their squad is an issue. Game management is more of a challenge when players who might normally be subs are starting. Players are being kept in despite looking quite fatigued towards the end of matches because the coaching staff thinks they’re still the best options even at diminished capacity. The sooner Howell, Borges, Wright, and others can come back — not even to start, but to take pressure off the current starters playing constant 90-plus minute stints — the better it’ll be for the longevity of the squad.
Returning players shine, too, sometimes brighter than ever
Just because the new players are shining doesn’t mean the returning players have been slouches. This season, the club has already seen big improvements in players like Uchenna Kanu who scored zero regular season goals in 2023 but has scored five in 2024.
DeMelo has also stood out and seen a return to her early 2023 form. Few players can solve pressure the way she does. After her return from the World Cup, the midfielder had a lag in performance, but that seems to be water under the bridge now. She’s generated the most xG of anyone on Racing with 3.17 and ranks 12th in the league for that same stat.
Carson Pickett is another player who is reaching new heights in 2024. She leads the league in chances created (30) and successful crosses (27). She’s tied for second in the NWSL in big chances created with six.
The Tactics
One reason some of these returning players are shining so brightly is because of tweaks in tactics. Pickett, for example, is suddenly at the top of the league in multiple chance-creating categories because she’s playing up higher compared to last season when former head coach Kim Björkegren had Pickett sit back closer to the midline. Now that Pickett is playing up higher, she is sending in more crosses herself and adding to the attacking numbers flooding forward. Considering Pickett is known for her pinpoint accurate service, this seems like an obvious decision, but as obvious as it may seem it wasn’t what was being done last season.
Overall, with the hiring of new head coach Bev Yanez, Racing is still a high-pressing, possession-driven team. The biggest changes are that players are being utilized to get the best out of their abilities, like Pickett, and they’re also playing with a tactical know-how that’s been lacking.
At the end of 2023, captain Howell and vice-captain Abby Erceg expressed their displeasure with Racing’s tactics after their loss against the San Diego Wave in the final match of the season. Erceg said there was a “ton of improvement” that could be made tactically while Howell explained that players simply didn’t know how to press effectively which wore them out and made them ineffective.
At the beginning of 2024, it was clear the team still struggled to know how to react in certain situations. Against the Portland Thorns, Racing seemed completely at a loss for how to put away their win despite a two-goal lead. They did almost everything wrong in the second half. The forwards and midfield sat down too far on the defense and stifled any attempts to move the ball forward. They sat back defensively and let their opponents win all the first and second balls which gave them all the momentum and enough chances to equalize.
By the most recent match against Chicago, however, Racing looked like a different team. Once again they found themselves ahead and defending a lead against an opponent who was gaining momentum in the second half. But in contrast to the Portland performance, during the team’s recent win against Chicago, they didn’t crush the defense, they continued to move the ball forward, and they kept fighting to win first and second balls. And instead of giving up a late equalizer, they held on to earn all three points.
The press has also improved significantly with players turning over the ball in dangerous areas more frequently. Once again, the Chicago match provides good evidence of this. In the fourth minute, Sears put pressure on a Red Stars defender which turned the ball over inside the box to the feet of Bahr and created a solid early chance. In the 19th minute, Chicago attempted to switch sides but well-timed pressure from Bahr led to a rushed pass to the right back who was immediately hounded by Kayla Fischer who forced a turnover. In the 25th minute, pressure from Bahr again forced a quick pass from the Red Stars center back whose target was immediately stripped of the ball by Flint. Flint was quickly fouled which led to a set piece that led into the sequence that eventually resulted in Sears’ game-winning goal.
Even though Racing’s performances haven’t been perfect, they’ve shown solid growth as the season has progressed — even in their losses. Against the first-place Orlando Pride, they contained Zambian superstar Barbra Banda better than almost any other team holding the Pride to a slim 1-0 victory. Against the Washington Spirit, frustrating mistakes cost them points, but Racing seized momentum in the second half and improved as the game went on.
Despite being a first-year coach, Yanez has a very clear vision of what she wants Racing to be and has made significant progress in shaping them into that team. Even better, players seem just as bought into her vision which will be critical for their continued development.
Peaking at the Right Time: The Next 10 Matches
Coach Yanez has talked a lot about the importance of “peaking at the right time.” While it’s true that no team benefits from playing their best soccer at the opening of the season, we’ve reached the time where Racing needs to start pulling in wins regularly to stay in contention for the playoffs. Those early dropped leads aren’t deadly yet, but they can’t stomach any more of them if they’re not also grabbing three points regularly.
This might seem like a big ask, but it’s not hard to feel like Racing has yet to play their best soccer. They are improving tactically, and they’ve pulled in decent results despite injuries and an extremely hard schedule. Now, as their schedule lightens up, they’ll have to show that they have truly evolved and can put together a winning streak befitting a playoff-bound team.
When Racing returns from the June international break, they’ll kick it off with the Houston Dash at home (June 7), followed by Gotham at home (June 15), Angel City on the road (June 19), Seattle Reign on the road (June 23), and then return home to play Bay FC for the first time on June 29. In four out of these five games, Racing will be playing teams ranked lower than them. They should aim to get a minimum of nine points, but ideally, should hope to get at least 12. It’ll be hard playing three games in nine days with two on the road, but Angel City and Seattle Reign are both very beatable. Both teams have only scored 11 goals thus far and given up 16 and 20 respectively. Even reigning champs Gotham — likely the hardest team in this stint — should be beatable at home if Racing could draw them in New Jersey.
It may seem like a tall order to demand a winning streak from a team that’s never pulled off more than two consecutive wins or won more than six games in the regular season, but this is what they’ll have to do if they are, in fact, going to live up to their potential and reach the playoffs. The pieces are there and the momentum is in their favor. If some of the injured players can start trickling back in to bolster the roster, that’s even better. But no matter how you slice it, it’s time for Racing to start truly coming into form. They don’t need to peak yet, but there needs to be continued strong evidence that they’re on their way to the summit and not still navigating the foothills.
In Case You Missed It…
A new episode of the Butchertown Rundown podcast is now available on Apple podcasts and Spotify — Wednesday, May 29
Our recap of the big win over the Chicago Red Stars — Sunday, May 26